CBO Says 22 Million More Uninsured Under Senate Bill, Premiums Initially 20% Higher Then 30% Lower

The CBO has scored the Senate version of the healthcare bill, which was passed by the House as H.R.1628, and found a few more modest improvements relative to its scoring of the Healthcare Bill as of May 24 . Here are the apples to apples comparisons with the last proposed version of the bill:

  • Under the Senate Bill, the US budget deficit would be reduced by $321 billion between 2017 and 2026, which is $202 billion better than the House version, which would have cut the cumulative deficit by $119 billion. This
  • The CBO also found that the number of Americans expected to lose their health coverage would rise to 22 million in 2026, which is 1 million fewer than the 23 million forecast in the May scoring of the House bill. It is also a little over 100% more than are currently enrolled in Obamacare.
  • The CBO concludes that in 2026, an estimated 49 million people under age 65 would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law. Under the last CBO estimate, the number of Americans wihtout insurance in 2026 was 51 million of Americans under 65, so an improvement of 2 million.
  • Under the Senate bill, average premiums for benchmark plans for single individuals would be about 20% higher in 2018 than under current law, mainly because the penalty for not having insurance would be eliminated, Those premiums would be about 10 percent higher than under current law in 2019.
  • However, in 2020, average premiums for benchmark plans for single individuals would be about 30 percent lower than under current law.

Below is the “bridge” of the budget deficit reduction from the CBO. Of note: virtually all of the $541 billion in cumulative increase in deficits due to “non-coverage provisions” shown below, is the result of “repeal or delay of taxes on high-income people.”

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